Toronto FC 0–1 St. Louis City: Result & Stats

Toronto FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

St. Louis City

A. Jackson 50'

7/8/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 31BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Toronto FC39%

×Draw26%

St. Louis City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchSt. Louis City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Toronto FC

1.36

St. Louis City

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.01

creates per match

1.30

1.28

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.01

St. Louis City

1.30

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.28

St. Louis City

1.72

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Toronto FC+0.18scores more

St. Louis City-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

St. Louis City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

65%

Toronto FC or St. Louis City

74%

Draw or St. Louis City

61%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

18%

St. Louis City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

74%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

39%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

16%

St. Louis City 1+ goals

72%

St. Louis City 2+ goals

37%

St. Louis City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

52%

St. Louis City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.28 · 31 matches

St. Louis City away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.01 + St. Louis City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

St. Louis City attack 1.30 + Toronto FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Toronto FC scores more

39%

level

26%

St. Louis City scores more

35%

Toronto FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

R. Petretta

Toronto FC · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

Indiana VassilevPenalty cancelled

38'

Njabulo Blom

47'

Tim Parker

50'

A. Jackson↳ A. Watts

57'

Alonso Coello← B. Servania

67'

R. Alm← N. Gioacchini

67'

J. Nerwinski← A. Watts

68'

M. Perez← I. Vassilev

72'

J. Bernardez← A. Akinola

82'

Célio Pompeu← A. Jackson

83'

T. Antonoglou← R. Petretta

83'

J. Perruzza← D. Kerr

84'

A. Pearlman← A. Mabika

90+4'

Themi Antonoglou

90'

I. Jensen← J. Stroud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorontoSt.

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots17

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.40

5Corners7

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots17

3On Target6

5Off Target9

4Blocked2

3Inside Box11

9Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

525Total Passes313

426Accurate Passes222

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2