Toronto FC 0–1 Inter Miami: Result & Stats

Toronto FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Miami

10/5/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 48BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Toronto FC33%

×Draw25%

Inter Miami42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchInter Miami

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.53

Toronto FC

1.31

Inter Miami

1.53

Inter Miami creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

1.88

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.07

Inter Miami

1.88

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.19

Inter Miami

1.56

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Toronto FC+0.20scores more

Inter Miami+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

Inter Miami →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

58%

Toronto FC or Inter Miami

75%

Draw or Inter Miami

67%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

14%

Inter Miami wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

73%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

38%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

14%

Inter Miami 1+ goals

78%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

45%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

43%

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.19 · 22 matches

Inter Miami away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.07 + Inter Miami defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Inter Miami attack 1.88 + Toronto FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto FC scores more

33%

level

25%

Inter Miami scores more

42%

Inter Miami at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff