Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer 2026

Toronto FC
Toronto FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
5/14/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 13BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Toronto FC39%
×Draw26%
FC Cincinnati35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto FC
1.34
FC Cincinnati
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Toronto FC
1.04
FC Cincinnati
1.33

allows per match

Toronto FC
1.18
FC Cincinnati
1.65

finishing

Toronto FC+0.24scores more
FC Cincinnati+0.35scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw
65%
Toronto FC or FC Cincinnati
74%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
61%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+
18%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals
74%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
39%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
15%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
71%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
36%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)
53%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Toronto FC scores more
39%
level
26%
FC Cincinnati scores more
35%

Toronto FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Toronto FC 0–1 FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati beat Toronto FC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto.