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Törökszentmiklós vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
0 – 1
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
10/24/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 14Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós37%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.67
Sényő Carnifex
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
60%
Törökszentmiklós or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
63%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
19%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
81%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
50%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
23%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
82%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
52%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
48%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
37%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
40%

Sényő Carnifex at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Sényő Carnifex

Sényő Carnifex beat Törökszentmiklós 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.