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Törökszentmiklós vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
1 – 2
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
5/11/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 34Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós40%
×Draw24%
Salgótarjáni BTC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.59
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
64%
Törökszentmiklós or Salgótarjáni BTC
76%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
60%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
20%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
80%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
47%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
21%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
78%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
44%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
52%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
40%
level
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
36%

Törökszentmiklós at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Törökszentmiklós will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Salgótarjáni BTC beat Törökszentmiklós 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.