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Törökszentmiklós vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
0 – 2
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
Z. Nagy 51'
D. Juhos 14'
11/28/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 19Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós28%
×Draw22%
Putnok VSE49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.40
Putnok VSE
1.90

Putnok VSE creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
51%
Törökszentmiklós or Putnok VSE
78%
Draw or Putnok VSE
72%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
13%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
75%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
41%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
17%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
85%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
56%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
37%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
28%
level
22%
Putnok VSE scores more
49%

Putnok VSE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Juhos
51'
Z. Nagy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Törökszentmiklós 0–2 Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat Törökszentmiklós 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 28, 2021.

Goals: D. Juhos (14'), Z. Nagy (51').

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.