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Törökszentmiklós vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
5/22/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 37Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós51%
×Draw20%
Hidasnémeti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
2.23
Hidasnémeti
1.66

Törökszentmiklós creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
71%
Törökszentmiklós or Hidasnémeti
80%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
49%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
30%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
89%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
65%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
38%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
81%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
49%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
64%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
51%
level
20%
Hidasnémeti scores more
29%

Törökszentmiklós at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Törökszentmiklós will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Hidasnémeti

Törökszentmiklós beat Hidasnémeti 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.