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Törökszentmiklós vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
1 – 1
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
11/7/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 16Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós33%
×Draw23%
Diósgyőr II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.48
Diósgyőr II
1.73

Diósgyőr II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
56%
Törökszentmiklós or Diósgyőr II
77%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
67%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
15%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
77%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
43%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
19%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
82%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
52%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
43%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
33%
level
23%
Diósgyőr II scores more
44%

Diósgyőr II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Diósgyőr II

Törökszentmiklós and Diósgyőr II drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.