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Törökszentmiklós vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
4/13/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós31%
×Draw22%
Debrecen II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.52
Debrecen II
1.89

Debrecen II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
54%
Törökszentmiklós or Debrecen II
78%
Draw or Debrecen II
69%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
15%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
78%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
45%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
20%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
85%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
56%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
40%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
31%
level
22%
Debrecen II scores more
46%

Debrecen II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Debrecen II

Törökszentmiklós beat Debrecen II 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.