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Törökszentmiklós vs BKV Előre — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
P. Szecsei 26'
Z. Pataki 9'
I. Lajos 85'
2/20/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós32%
×Draw23%
BKV Előre45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.42
BKV Előre
1.74

BKV Előre creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
BKV Előre
1.32

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
BKV Előre
1.58

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
55%
Törökszentmiklós or BKV Előre
77%
Draw or BKV Előre
68%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
14%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
76%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
41%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
17%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
82%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
52%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
41%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

BKV Előre attack 1.32 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
32%
level
23%
BKV Előre scores more
45%

BKV Előre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Z. Pataki
26'
P. Szecsei
85'
I. Lajos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs BKV Előre

Törökszentmiklós beat BKV Előre 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on February 20, 2022.

Goals: Z. Pataki (9'), P. Szecsei (26'), I. Lajos (85').

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.