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Torns vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Torns
Torns
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
6/19/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 14Tornvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Torns46%
×Draw25%
Angelholms FF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torns
1.61
Angelholms FF
1.25

Torns creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 70 away

creates per match

Torns
1.46
Angelholms FF
1.16

allows per match

Torns
1.33
Angelholms FF
1.76

finishing

Torns+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torns ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Torns or draw
70%
Torns or Angelholms FF
75%
Draw or Angelholms FF
54%

Winning margin

Torns wins by 2+
23%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torns 1+ goals
80%
Torns 2+ goals
48%
Torns 3+ goals
22%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
71%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
36%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torns (draw refunded)
61%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torns at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torns attack 1.46 + Angelholms FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Angelholms FF attack 1.16 + Torns defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torns scores more
46%
level
25%
Angelholms FF scores more
30%

Torns at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Torns 4–1 Angelholms FF

Torns beat Angelholms FF 4-1 in Ettan - Södra on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Tornvallen in Lund.