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Tormenta vs Savannah Clovers — US Open Cup 2018

Tormenta
Tormenta
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Savannah Clovers
Savannah Clovers
4/3/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundTormenta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tormenta76%
×Draw15%
Savannah Clovers9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta
2.63
Savannah Clovers
0.80

Tormenta creates 229% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tormenta
2.60
Savannah Clovers
1.00

allows per match

Tormenta
0.60
Savannah Clovers
2.67

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par
Savannah Clovers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Savannah Clovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw
91%
Tormenta or Savannah Clovers
85%
Draw or Savannah Clovers
24%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+
54%
Savannah Clovers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals
93%
Tormenta 2+ goals
73%
Tormenta 3+ goals
48%
Savannah Clovers 1+ goals
55%
Savannah Clovers 2+ goals
19%
Savannah Clovers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)
89%
Savannah Clovers (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Savannah Clovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 2.60 + Savannah Clovers defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Savannah Clovers attack 1.00 + Tormenta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Tormenta scores more
76%
level
15%
Savannah Clovers scores more
9%

Tormenta at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tormenta vs Savannah Clovers

Tormenta beat Savannah Clovers 4-0 in US Open Cup on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Tormenta Stadium in Statesboro, Georgia.