Tormenta 2–1 Rio Grande Valley: Result & Stats

Tormenta

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

4/5/2023

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundTormenta Stadium at Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tormenta64%

×Draw20%

Rio Grande Valley16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TormentaExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.97

Tormenta

2.13

Rio Grande Valley

0.97

Tormenta creates 120% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

1.33

0.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tormenta

2.60

Rio Grande Valley

1.33

allows per match

Tormenta

0.60

Rio Grande Valley

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw

84%

Tormenta or Rio Grande Valley

80%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

36%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+

40%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals

88%

Tormenta 2+ goals

63%

Tormenta 3+ goals

35%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

62%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

25%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)

80%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 2.60 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.33 + Tormenta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tormenta scores more

64%

level

20%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

16%

Tormenta at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff