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Tormenta vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2019

Tormenta
Tormenta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
8/9/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 14Tormenta Stadium at Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tormenta44%
×Draw23%
Central Valley Fuego32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta
1.74
Central Valley Fuego
1.45

Tormenta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tormenta
1.53
Central Valley Fuego
1.38

allows per match

Tormenta
1.52
Central Valley Fuego
1.95

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Central Valley Fuego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw
68%
Tormenta or Central Valley Fuego
77%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego
56%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+
24%
Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals
82%
Tormenta 2+ goals
52%
Tormenta 3+ goals
25%
Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
77%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
42%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)
58%
Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 1.53 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Tormenta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tormenta scores more
44%
level
23%
Central Valley Fuego scores more
32%

Tormenta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Tormenta 2–1 Central Valley Fuego

Tormenta beat Central Valley Fuego 2-1 in USL League One on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Tormenta Stadium at Optim Sports Medicine Field in Statesboro, Georgia.