Tormenta 0–4 Central Valley Fuego: Result & Stats

Tormenta

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Central Valley Fuego

V. Bijev 42', 35'

S. Chavez 17'

V. Falck 12'

5/21/2022

USL League One · Round 4Erk Russell Athletic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tormenta44%

×Draw23%

Central Valley Fuego32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TormentaExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.45

Tormenta

1.74

Central Valley Fuego

1.45

Tormenta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

1.53

creates per match

1.38

1.52

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Tormenta

1.53

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Tormenta

1.52

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw

68%

Tormenta or Central Valley Fuego

77%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

56%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+

24%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals

82%

Tormenta 2+ goals

52%

Tormenta 3+ goals

25%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

77%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

42%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)

58%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 1.53 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Tormenta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tormenta scores more

44%

level

23%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

32%

Tormenta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

17'

31'

35'

42'

V. Bijev↳ M. Schenfeld

46'

A. Bosua← C. Thorn

46'

B. Sharifi← C. Heckenberg

58'

M. Schenfeld

60'

F. Dulysse

69'

K. Umeda← D. Nembhard

71'

R. Morrell← J. Roberts

71'

R. Bustamante← M. Schenfeld

71'

73'

78'

82'

85'

85'

Keslley← O. Ramos

90'

R. Bustamante

Tormenta

Central

1

Antman

5

Smith

30

A

▼

Schenfeld

13

Dulysse

15

⚽

Chavez

4

Gillingha

25

▼

Hornsby

20

⚽2

▼

Bijev

6

A

▼

Ramos

8

⚽

Falck

24

A

▼

1

25

5

12

▼

Nembhard

23

▼

Thorn

10

Billhardt

8

Freitas

21

▼

Heckenber

9

Sterling

11

▼

Roberts

7

Adjei

Manager: I. Cameron

46'▲A. Bosua←▼C. Thorn

46'▲B. Sharifi←▼C. Heckenberg

69'▲K. Umeda←▼D. Nembhard

71'▲R. Morrell←▼J. Roberts

Tormenta substitutes

27Bosua47Sharifi13Umeda14Morrell18Soto99Bush3Green

Manager: M. Vasquez

71'▲R. Bustamante←▼M. Schenfeld

71'▲J. Partida←▼C. Dieye

82'▲M. North←▼M. Hornsby

85'▲A. Velarde←▼V. Bijev

85'▲Keslley←▼O. Ramos

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

23Bustamante3Partida18North10Velarde11Keslley28Torralva34Escalante

USL League One: Tormenta 0–4 Central Valley Fuego

Central Valley Fuego beat Tormenta 4-0 in USL League One on May 21, 2022.

Goals: V. Falck (12'), S. Chavez (17'), V. Bijev (35', 42').

The match was played at Erk Russell Athletic Park in Statesboro, Georgia.

Tormenta vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL League One: Tormenta 0–4 Central Valley Fuego