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Tormenta II vs Tennessee — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tennessee
Tennessee
5/13/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II53%
×Draw24%
Tennessee23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.71
Tennessee
1.02

Tormenta II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
Tennessee
1.28

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
Tennessee
1.16

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

Tennessee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
77%
Tormenta II or Tennessee
76%
Draw or Tennessee
47%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
29%
Tennessee wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
82%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
51%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
24%
Tennessee 1+ goals
64%
Tennessee 2+ goals
27%
Tennessee 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
70%
Tennessee (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + Tennessee defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tennessee attack 1.28 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tormenta II scores more
53%
level
24%
Tennessee scores more
23%

Tormenta II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tormenta II vs Tennessee

Tormenta II and Tennessee drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Optim Sports Medicine Field in Statesboro, Georgia.