Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tormenta II vs Southern Soccer Academy — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
PST
00:00
Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
7/8/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 50Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II60%
×Draw21%
Southern Soccer Academy19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
2.06
Southern Soccer Academy
1.05

Tormenta II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
Southern Soccer Academy
1.35

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
Southern Soccer Academy
1.86

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
81%
Tormenta II or Southern Soccer Academy
79%
Draw or Southern Soccer Academy
40%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
37%
Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
87%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
61%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
34%
Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
65%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
28%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
76%
Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.35 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tormenta II scores more
60%
level
21%
Southern Soccer Academy scores more
19%

Tormenta II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tormenta II host Southern Soccer Academy

July 8, 2020: Tormenta II take on Southern Soccer Academy in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tormenta II host Southern Soccer Academy at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.