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Southern Soccer Academy vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
6/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 45Marathon Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Southern Soccer Academy30%
×Draw23%
Tormenta II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern Soccer Academy
1.42
Tormenta II
1.82

Tormenta II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 23 away

creates per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.57
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.51
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern Soccer Academy ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Southern Soccer Academy or draw
53%
Southern Soccer Academy or Tormenta II
77%
Draw or Tormenta II
70%

Winning margin

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
14%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
76%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
41%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
17%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
84%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
54%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
39%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern Soccer Academy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.57 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southern Soccer Academy scores more
30%
level
23%
Tormenta II scores more
47%

Tormenta II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southern Soccer Academy 1 – 2 Tormenta II

Tormenta II beat Southern Soccer Academy 2-1 in USL League Two on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Marathon Soccer Park in Austell.