Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tormenta II vs SC United Bantams — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
PST
00:00
SC United Bantams
SC United Bantams
6/20/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II51%
×Draw23%
SC United Bantams26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.84
SC United Bantams
1.27

Tormenta II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
SC United Bantams
1.80

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
SC United Bantams
1.43

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

SC United Bantams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
74%
Tormenta II or SC United Bantams
77%
Draw or SC United Bantams
49%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
28%
SC United Bantams wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
84%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
55%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
28%
SC United Bantams 1+ goals
72%
SC United Bantams 2+ goals
36%
SC United Bantams 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
66%
SC United Bantams (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

SC United Bantams away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + SC United Bantams defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.84

SC United Bantams attack 1.80 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tormenta II scores more
51%
level
23%
SC United Bantams scores more
26%

Tormenta II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tormenta II vs SC United Bantams — Match Preview

Tormenta II face SC United Bantams on June 20, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tormenta II host SC United Bantams at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.