SC United Bantams 0–1 Tormenta II: Result & Stats

SC United Bantams

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tormenta II

7/13/2019

USL League Two · Round 17SCUFC Monticello Road Soccer Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

SC United Bantams36%

×Draw23%

Tormenta II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC United BantamsExpected goals in this matchTormenta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.78

SC United Bantams

1.67

Tormenta II

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 23 away

2.07

creates per match

2.13

1.44

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

SC United Bantams

2.07

Tormenta II

2.13

allows per match

SC United Bantams

1.44

Tormenta II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC United Bantams ↓

Tormenta II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SC United Bantams or draw

59%

SC United Bantams or Tormenta II

77%

Draw or Tormenta II

64%

Winning margin

SC United Bantams wins by 2+

18%

Tormenta II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SC United Bantams 1+ goals

81%

SC United Bantams 2+ goals

50%

SC United Bantams 3+ goals

23%

Tormenta II 1+ goals

83%

Tormenta II 2+ goals

53%

Tormenta II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

SC United Bantams (draw refunded)

47%

Tormenta II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC United Bantams at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC United Bantams attack 2.07 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + SC United Bantams defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SC United Bantams scores more

36%

level

23%

Tormenta II scores more

41%

Tormenta II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff