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Tormenta II vs One Knoxville — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
One Knoxville
One Knoxville
5/30/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tormenta II36%
×Draw24%
One Knoxville40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.48
One Knoxville
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
One Knoxville
2.43

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
One Knoxville
0.71

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

One Knoxville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
60%
Tormenta II or One Knoxville
76%
Draw or One Knoxville
64%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
17%
One Knoxville wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
77%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
43%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
19%
One Knoxville 1+ goals
80%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
47%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
47%
One Knoxville (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + One Knoxville defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

One Knoxville attack 2.43 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tormenta II scores more
36%
level
24%
One Knoxville scores more
40%

One Knoxville at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tormenta II vs One Knoxville

One Knoxville beat Tormenta II 3-2 in USL League Two on May 30, 2022.

The match was played at Optim Sports Medicine Field in Statesboro, Georgia.