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Tormenta II vs North Carolina Fusion — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
AET
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
North Carolina Fusion
North Carolina Fusion
7/24/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsErk Russell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II43%
×Draw23%
North Carolina Fusion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.78
North Carolina Fusion
1.57

Tormenta II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
North Carolina Fusion
2.39

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
North Carolina Fusion
1.31

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
North Carolina Fusion+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

North Carolina Fusion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
66%
Tormenta II or North Carolina Fusion
77%
Draw or North Carolina Fusion
57%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
23%
North Carolina Fusion wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
83%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
53%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
26%
North Carolina Fusion 1+ goals
79%
North Carolina Fusion 2+ goals
46%
North Carolina Fusion 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
56%
North Carolina Fusion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

North Carolina Fusion away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + North Carolina Fusion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

North Carolina Fusion attack 2.39 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tormenta II scores more
43%
level
23%
North Carolina Fusion scores more
34%

Tormenta II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tormenta II 2–4 North Carolina Fusion

North Carolina Fusion beat Tormenta II 4-2 in USL League Two on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Erk Russell Park in Statesboro, Georgia.