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Torlak vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Torlak
Torlak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
9/1/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 4Stadion FK Torlak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Torlak42%
×Draw26%
Sindjelic Beograd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torlak
1.46
Sindjelic Beograd
1.25

Torlak creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 49 away

creates per match

Torlak
1.55
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Torlak
1.64
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Torlak+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torlak ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torlak or draw
68%
Torlak or Sindjelic Beograd
74%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
58%

Winning margin

Torlak wins by 2+
20%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torlak 1+ goals
77%
Torlak 2+ goals
43%
Torlak 3+ goals
18%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
71%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
36%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torlak (draw refunded)
56%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torlak at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torlak attack 1.55 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Torlak defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torlak scores more
42%
level
26%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
32%

Torlak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torlak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Torlak 2–1 Sindjelic Beograd

Torlak beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Torlak in Beograd.