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Torlak vs Padinska Skela — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Torlak
Torlak
FT
1 – 2
Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
11/17/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 15Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Torlak46%
×Draw24%
Padinska Skela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torlak
1.67
Padinska Skela
1.32

Torlak creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torlak
1.55
Padinska Skela
1.00

allows per match

Torlak
1.64
Padinska Skela
1.78

finishing

Torlak+0.00on par
Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torlak ↓

Padinska Skela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Torlak or draw
70%
Torlak or Padinska Skela
76%
Draw or Padinska Skela
54%

Winning margin

Torlak wins by 2+
24%
Padinska Skela wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torlak 1+ goals
81%
Torlak 2+ goals
50%
Torlak 3+ goals
23%
Padinska Skela 1+ goals
73%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
38%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torlak (draw refunded)
60%
Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torlak at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Padinska Skela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torlak attack 1.55 + Padinska Skela defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Padinska Skela attack 1.00 + Torlak defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torlak scores more
46%
level
24%
Padinska Skela scores more
30%

Torlak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torlak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torlak vs Padinska Skela

Padinska Skela beat Torlak 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija in Beograd.