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Torino vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
9/17/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 7Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Torino40%
×Draw25%
Sassuolo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.46
Sassuolo
1.32

Torino creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Torino
1.25
Sassuolo
1.16

allows per match

Torino
1.49
Sassuolo
1.66

finishing

Torino-0.02on par
Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torino or draw
66%
Torino or Sassuolo
75%
Draw or Sassuolo
60%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
19%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
77%
Torino 2+ goals
43%
Torino 3+ goals
18%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
73%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
38%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
54%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.25 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Torino defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torino scores more
40%
level
25%
Sassuolo scores more
34%

Torino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torino vs Sassuolo

Sassuolo beat Torino 1-0 in Serie A on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.