Sassuolo 0–1 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torino

N. Vlasic 66' (pen)

12/21/2025

Serie A · Round 16MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo34%

×Draw27%

Torino39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.27

Sassuolo

1.18

Torino

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.02

creates per match

1.06

1.48

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Torino

1.06

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Torino

1.34

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Torino+0.02on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

61%

Sassuolo or Torino

73%

Draw or Torino

66%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

14%

Torino wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

69%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

33%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

12%

Torino 1+ goals

72%

Torino 2+ goals

36%

Torino 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

47%

Torino (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Torino away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Torino defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Torino attack 1.06 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sassuolo scores more

34%

level

27%

Torino scores more

39%

Torino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Che AdamsPenalty cancelled

32'

Nemanja Matić

38'

Sebastian Walukiewicz

58'

I. Ilic← G. Gineitis

58'

G. Simeone← D. Zapata

63'

L. Moro← W. Cheddira

63'

L. Lipani← A. Vranckx

66'

N. VlasicPenalty

72'

Ivan Ilić

76'

Jay Idzes

78'

F. Cande← J. Doig

78'

A. Fadera← C. Volpato

79'

N. Pierini← A. Lauriente

85'

C. Ngonge← C. Adams

87'

C. Casadei← A. Tameze

88'

C. Biraghi← K. Asllani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloTorino

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots10

0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.71

2Corners3

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots10

1On Target5

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

462Total Passes398

376Accurate Passes306

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.02Goals Prevented0.02

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Serie A: Sassuolo 0–1 Torino

Torino beat Sassuolo 1-0 in Serie A on December 21, 2025.

Goals: N. Vlasic (66' pen).

Sassuolo controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.

Sassuolo vs Torino — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Sassuolo 0–1 Torino