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Torino vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Monza
Monza
5/7/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Torino38%
×Draw25%
Monza36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.41
Monza
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torino
1.25
Monza
1.23

allows per match

Torino
1.49
Monza
1.57

finishing

Torino-0.02on par
Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torino or draw
64%
Torino or Monza
75%
Draw or Monza
62%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
18%
Monza wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
76%
Torino 2+ goals
41%
Torino 3+ goals
17%
Monza 1+ goals
74%
Monza 2+ goals
39%
Monza 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
52%
Monza (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.25 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Monza attack 1.23 + Torino defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torino scores more
38%
level
25%
Monza scores more
36%

Torino at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torino vs Monza

Torino and Monza drew 1-1 in Serie A on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.