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Torino U20 vs Sassuolo U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U20
Torino U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
9/15/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Stadio Valentino Mazzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Torino U2043%
×Draw25%
Sassuolo U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U20
1.56
Sassuolo U20
1.33

Torino U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Torino U20
1.58
Sassuolo U20
1.45

allows per match

Torino U20
1.21
Sassuolo U20
1.53

finishing

Torino U20+0.00on par
Sassuolo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U20 ↓

Sassuolo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Torino U20 or draw
67%
Torino U20 or Sassuolo U20
75%
Draw or Sassuolo U20
57%

Winning margin

Torino U20 wins by 2+
21%
Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torino U20 1+ goals
79%
Torino U20 2+ goals
46%
Torino U20 3+ goals
21%
Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
74%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
38%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torino U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Sassuolo U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U20 attack 1.58 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.45 + Torino U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torino U20 scores more
43%
level
25%
Sassuolo U20 scores more
33%

Torino U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Torino U20 1–2 Sassuolo U20

Sassuolo U20 beat Torino U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Valentino Mazzola in Orbassano.