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Torino U19 vs Milan U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U19
Torino U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Milan U19
Milan U19
5/19/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 34Stadio Valentino Mazzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Torino U1945%
×Draw26%
Milan U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U19
1.50
Milan U19
1.16

Torino U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Torino U19
1.58
Milan U19
1.13

allows per match

Torino U19
1.19
Milan U19
1.43

finishing

Torino U19+0.00on par
Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U19 ↓

Milan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torino U19 or draw
71%
Torino U19 or Milan U19
74%
Draw or Milan U19
55%

Winning margin

Torino U19 wins by 2+
22%
Milan U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torino U19 1+ goals
78%
Torino U19 2+ goals
44%
Torino U19 3+ goals
19%
Milan U19 1+ goals
69%
Milan U19 2+ goals
32%
Milan U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torino U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Milan U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U19 attack 1.58 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Milan U19 attack 1.13 + Torino U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torino U19 scores more
45%
level
26%
Milan U19 scores more
29%

Torino U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torino U19 vs Milan U19

Torino U19 and Milan U19 drew 3-3 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Valentino Mazzola in Orbassano.