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Torino U19 vs Genoa U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U19
Torino U19
FT
1 – 1
Genoa U19
Genoa U19
5/26/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 25Campo Sportivo Comunale Antonio Bertolotti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Torino U1946%
×Draw25%
Genoa U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U19
1.59
Genoa U19
1.23

Torino U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Torino U19
1.58
Genoa U19
1.26

allows per match

Torino U19
1.19
Genoa U19
1.60

finishing

Torino U19+0.00on par
Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torino U19 or draw
70%
Torino U19 or Genoa U19
75%
Draw or Genoa U19
54%

Winning margin

Torino U19 wins by 2+
23%
Genoa U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torino U19 1+ goals
80%
Torino U19 2+ goals
47%
Torino U19 3+ goals
21%
Genoa U19 1+ goals
71%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
35%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torino U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U19 attack 1.58 + Genoa U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Genoa U19 attack 1.26 + Torino U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torino U19 scores more
46%
level
25%
Genoa U19 scores more
30%

Torino U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torino U19 vs Genoa U19

Torino U19 and Genoa U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Antonio Bertolotti in Volpiano.