Torino U19 2–1 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Torino U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cesena U19

A. Njie 84'

F. Dell'Aquila 56'

A. Carlini 38'

9/11/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5Stadio Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torino U1965%

×Draw18%

Cesena U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torino U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.13

Torino U19

2.41

Cesena U19

1.13

Torino U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Torino U19

1.58

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Torino U19

1.19

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torino U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Torino U19 or draw

84%

Torino U19 or Cesena U19

82%

Draw or Cesena U19

35%

Winning margin

Torino U19 wins by 2+

43%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Torino U19 1+ goals

91%

Torino U19 2+ goals

69%

Torino U19 3+ goals

43%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

68%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

31%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Torino U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U19 attack 1.58 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.41

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Torino U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Torino U19 scores more

65%

level

18%

Cesena U19 scores more

16%

Torino U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

17'

33'

34'

38'

46'

47'

53'

D. Weidmann← G. Gineitis

53'

F. Dell'Aquila← L. Caccavo

56'

F. Dell'Aquila

59'

A. Spatari

69'

M. Rettore← J. Antolini

70'

V. Lo Giudice← C. Ferrara

70'

S. Sartini← S. Pieraccini

76'

N. Liburdi← N. Sette

82'

A. Njie← H. Ansah

84'

A. Njie

85'

A. Gessaroli← A. Carlini

86'

N. Amadori← A. Spatari

89'

F. Lilli

90+3'

E. Nije

Torino

Cesena

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Scurto

46'▲Joan Ruiz←▼M. Ruszel

53'▲D. Weidmann←▼G. Gineitis

53'▲F. Dell'Aquila←▼L. Caccavo

69'▲M. Rettore←▼J. Antolini

82'▲A. Njie←▼H. Ansah

Torino U19 substitutes

RuizWeidmannDell'AquilaRettoreNjie

Manager: G. Ceccarelli

70'▲V. Lo Giudice←▼C. Ferrara

70'▲S. Sartini←▼S. Pieraccini

76'▲N. Liburdi←▼N. Sette

85'▲A. Gessaroli←▼A. Carlini

86'▲N. Amadori←▼A. Spatari

Cesena U19 substitutes

GiudiceSartiniLiburdiGessaroliAmadori

Match Recap: Torino U19 vs Cesena U19

Torino U19 beat Cesena U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Carlini (38'), F. Dell'Aquila (56'), A. Njie (84').

The match was played at Stadio Silvio Piola in Vercelli.

Torino U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torino U19 vs Cesena U19