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Torino U19 vs Cagliari U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U19
Torino U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cagliari U19
Cagliari U19
2/11/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 18Stadio Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Torino U1947%
×Draw24%
Cagliari U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U19
1.69
Cagliari U19
1.27

Torino U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

Torino U19
1.58
Cagliari U19
1.36

allows per match

Torino U19
1.19
Cagliari U19
1.80

finishing

Torino U19+0.00on par
Cagliari U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U19 ↓

Cagliari U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Torino U19 or draw
71%
Torino U19 or Cagliari U19
76%
Draw or Cagliari U19
53%

Winning margin

Torino U19 wins by 2+
25%
Cagliari U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torino U19 1+ goals
82%
Torino U19 2+ goals
50%
Torino U19 3+ goals
24%
Cagliari U19 1+ goals
72%
Cagliari U19 2+ goals
36%
Cagliari U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torino U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Cagliari U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U19 attack 1.58 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cagliari U19 attack 1.36 + Torino U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torino U19 scores more
47%
level
24%
Cagliari U19 scores more
29%

Torino U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torino U19 vs Cagliari U19

Torino U19 beat Cagliari U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Silvio Piola in Vercelli.