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Torina vs Velarde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Velarde
Velarde
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torina56%
×Draw24%
Velarde20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.73
Velarde
0.93

Torina creates 86% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Velarde
0.76

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Velarde
2.00

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Velarde+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Velarde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torina or draw
80%
Torina or Velarde
76%
Draw or Velarde
44%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
31%
Velarde wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
82%
Torina 2+ goals
52%
Torina 3+ goals
25%
Velarde 1+ goals
61%
Velarde 2+ goals
24%
Velarde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
74%
Velarde (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Velarde away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Velarde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Velarde attack 0.76 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torina scores more
56%
level
24%
Velarde scores more
20%

Torina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torina vs Velarde

Torina and Velarde drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.