Torina 2–1 Siete Villas: Result & Stats

Torina

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Siete Villas

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Torina44%

×Draw27%

Siete Villas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinaExpected goals in this matchSiete Villas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Torina

1.36

Siete Villas

1.04

Torina creates 31% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

1.45

creates per match

0.99

1.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Torina

1.45

Siete Villas

0.99

allows per match

Torina

1.10

Siete Villas

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torina+0.00on par

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Siete Villas →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torina or draw

71%

Torina or Siete Villas

73%

Draw or Siete Villas

56%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+

21%

Siete Villas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals

74%

Torina 2+ goals

39%

Torina 3+ goals

16%

Siete Villas 1+ goals

65%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

28%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)

61%

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torina scores more

44%

level

27%

Siete Villas scores more

29%

Torina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff