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Torina vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
6/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torina55%
×Draw24%
Rinconeda Polanco20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.69
Rinconeda Polanco
0.92

Torina creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torina or draw
80%
Torina or Rinconeda Polanco
76%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
45%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
30%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
82%
Torina 2+ goals
50%
Torina 3+ goals
24%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
60%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
23%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
73%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torina scores more
55%
level
24%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
20%

Torina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torina vs Rinconeda Polanco

Torina beat Rinconeda Polanco 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.