Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torina vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
CANC
00:00
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Torina32%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.15
Racing Santander II
1.33

Racing Santander II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
59%
Torina or Racing Santander II
73%
Draw or Racing Santander II
68%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
13%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
68%
Torina 2+ goals
32%
Torina 3+ goals
11%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
74%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
38%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
44%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torina scores more
32%
level
27%
Racing Santander II scores more
41%

Racing Santander II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Torina host Racing Santander II

March 29, 2020: Torina take on Racing Santander II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Torina host Racing Santander II at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.