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Torina vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Campo Municipal de Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Torina40%
×Draw27%
Guarnizo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.32
Guarnizo
1.17

Torina creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
67%
Torina or Guarnizo
73%
Draw or Guarnizo
60%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
18%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
73%
Torina 2+ goals
38%
Torina 3+ goals
15%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
69%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
33%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
55%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torina scores more
40%
level
27%
Guarnizo scores more
33%

Torina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Torina 1–1 Guarnizo

Torina and Guarnizo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Vargas in Vargas.