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Torina vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
9/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Torina30%
×Draw27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.10
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.39

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
56%
Torina or Gimnástica Torrelavega
73%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
70%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
12%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
67%
Torina 2+ goals
30%
Torina 3+ goals
10%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
75%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
40%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
41%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torina scores more
30%
level
27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
44%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torina vs Gimnástica Torrelavega

Torina beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.