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Torina vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Cayón
Cayón
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Campo Municipal de Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Torina37%
×Draw27%
Cayón36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.27
Cayón
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Cayón
1.40

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Cayón
1.08

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Cayón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
64%
Torina or Cayón
73%
Draw or Cayón
63%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
16%
Cayón wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
72%
Torina 2+ goals
36%
Torina 3+ goals
14%
Cayón 1+ goals
71%
Cayón 2+ goals
36%
Cayón 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
51%
Cayón (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cayón attack 1.40 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torina scores more
37%
level
27%
Cayón scores more
36%

Torina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Torina 1–4 Cayón

Cayón beat Torina 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Vargas in Vargas.