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Torina vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Castro
Castro
1/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Torina46%
×Draw26%
Castro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.46
Castro
1.06

Torina creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Castro
1.46

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
73%
Torina or Castro
74%
Draw or Castro
54%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
23%
Castro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
77%
Torina 2+ goals
43%
Torina 3+ goals
18%
Castro 1+ goals
65%
Castro 2+ goals
29%
Castro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
63%
Castro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Castro attack 1.02 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torina scores more
46%
level
26%
Castro scores more
27%

Torina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torina 0 – 1 Castro

Castro beat Torina 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.