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Castro vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torina
Torina
12/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Castro43%
×Draw28%
Torina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.32
Torina
1.03

Castro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 110 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Torina
1.21

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castro or draw
71%
Castro or Torina
72%
Draw or Torina
57%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
20%
Torina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
73%
Castro 2+ goals
38%
Castro 3+ goals
15%
Torina 1+ goals
64%
Torina 2+ goals
28%
Torina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
60%
Torina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Torina attack 1.05 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castro scores more
43%
level
28%
Torina scores more
29%

Castro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castro vs Torina

Castro and Torina drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Riomar in Castro Urdiales.