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Torina vs Cartes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cartes
Cartes
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Torina55%
×Draw25%
Cartes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.61
Cartes
0.88

Torina creates 83% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Cartes
0.66

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Cartes
1.77

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Cartes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
79%
Torina or Cartes
75%
Draw or Cartes
45%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
29%
Cartes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
80%
Torina 2+ goals
48%
Torina 3+ goals
22%
Cartes 1+ goals
59%
Cartes 2+ goals
22%
Cartes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
73%
Cartes (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cartes attack 0.66 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torina scores more
55%
level
25%
Cartes scores more
21%

Torina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Torina 2–1 Cartes

Torina beat Cartes 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.