Torina 3–2 Barreda: Result & Stats

Torina

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Barreda

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Campo Municipal de Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Torina52%

×Draw24%

Barreda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinaExpected goals in this matchBarreda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.05

Torina

1.67

Barreda

1.05

Torina creates 59% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 61 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Torina

1.45

Barreda

1.00

allows per match

Torina

1.10

Barreda

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torina+0.00on par

Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Barreda →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torina or draw

76%

Torina or Barreda

76%

Draw or Barreda

48%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+

28%

Barreda wins by 2+

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals

81%

Torina 2+ goals

50%

Torina 3+ goals

23%

Barreda 1+ goals

65%

Barreda 2+ goals

28%

Barreda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)

68%

Barreda (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Barreda attack 1.00 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Torina scores more

52%

level

24%

Barreda scores more

24%

Torina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff