Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torina vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Torina53%
×Draw24%
Atlético Mineros23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.67
Atlético Mineros
1.01

Torina creates 65% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torina or draw
77%
Torina or Atlético Mineros
76%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
47%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
81%
Torina 2+ goals
50%
Torina 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torina scores more
53%
level
24%
Atlético Mineros scores more
23%

Torina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Torina 3–4 Atlético Mineros

Atlético Mineros beat Torina 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.