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Torina vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Torina40%
×Draw25%
Atlético Albericia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.44
Atlético Albericia
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torina or draw
65%
Torina or Atlético Albericia
75%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
60%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
76%
Torina 2+ goals
42%
Torina 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
53%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torina scores more
40%
level
25%
Atlético Albericia scores more
35%

Torina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Torina 2–3 Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Torina 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.