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Atlético Albericia vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torina
Torina
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Estadio Juan Hormaechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Atlético Albericia44%
×Draw27%
Torina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Albericia
1.41
Torina
1.11

Atlético Albericia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Albericia
1.60
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Atlético Albericia
1.17
Torina
1.21

finishing

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Albericia ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Albericia or draw
70%
Atlético Albericia or Torina
73%
Draw or Torina
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
21%
Torina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
17%
Torina 1+ goals
67%
Torina 2+ goals
30%
Torina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
60%
Torina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Albericia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 108 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Albericia attack 1.60 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Torina attack 1.05 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Albericia scores more
44%
level
27%
Torina scores more
30%

Atlético Albericia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Albericia vs Torina

Atlético Albericia beat Torina 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Hormaechea in Santander.