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Torgelower SV Greif vs Strausberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
CANC
17:30
Strausberg
Strausberg
10/14/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif69%
×Draw18%
Strausberg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
2.23
Strausberg
0.81

Torgelower SV Greif creates 175% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
Strausberg
0.50

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
Strausberg
2.25

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Strausberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
88%
Torgelower SV Greif or Strausberg
82%
Draw or Strausberg
31%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
46%
Strausberg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
89%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
65%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
38%
Strausberg 1+ goals
56%
Strausberg 2+ goals
19%
Strausberg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
85%
Strausberg (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
69%
level
18%
Strausberg scores more
12%

Torgelower SV Greif at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torgelower SV Greif vs Strausberg — Match Preview

Torgelower SV Greif face Strausberg on October 14, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Torgelower SV Greif host Strausberg at Gießerei-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.