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Torgelower SV Greif vs Greifswalder FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
2/26/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 18Gießerei-Arena Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif38%
×Draw23%
Greifswalder FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
1.63
Greifswalder FC
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
Greifswalder FC
2.14

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
Greifswalder FC
1.05

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
62%
Torgelower SV Greif or Greifswalder FC
77%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
62%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
19%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
80%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
48%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
22%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
80%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
48%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
50%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

Greifswalder FC attack 2.14 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
38%
level
23%
Greifswalder FC scores more
38%

Torgelower SV Greif at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Torgelower SV Greif 0–2 Greifswalder FC

Greifswalder FC beat Torgelower SV Greif 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Gießerei-Arena Kunstrasen in Torgelow.