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Tord vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tord
Tord
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
L. Larsson 62'
O. Ekelund 65'
4/18/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 4Rosenlunds IP 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tord50%
×Draw22%
Tidaholms GoIF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tord
1.96
Tidaholms GoIF
1.40

Tord creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tord
1.38
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

Tord
1.95
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

Tord+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tord ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tord or draw
72%
Tord or Tidaholms GoIF
78%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
50%

Winning margin

Tord wins by 2+
29%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tord 1+ goals
86%
Tord 2+ goals
58%
Tord 3+ goals
31%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
75%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
41%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tord (draw refunded)
65%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tord at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tord attack 1.38 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Tord defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tord scores more
50%
level
22%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
28%

Tord at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
L. Larsson
65'
O. Ekelund
Tord
Tidaholms
J. Johansson
Manager: J. Johansson
J. David
Manager: J. David

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Tord 1–1 Tidaholms GoIF

Tord and Tidaholms GoIF drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 18, 2025.

Goals: L. Larsson (62'), O. Ekelund (65').

The match was played at Rosenlunds IP 3 in Jönköping.