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Tord vs IFK Skövde — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tord
Tord
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
4/18/2026Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tord30%
×Draw22%
IFK Skövde48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tord
1.49
IFK Skövde
1.92

IFK Skövde creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tord
1.38
IFK Skövde
1.89

allows per match

Tord
1.95
IFK Skövde
1.60

finishing

Tord+0.00on par
IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tord ↓

IFK Skövde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tord or draw
52%
Tord or IFK Skövde
78%
Draw or IFK Skövde
70%

Winning margin

Tord wins by 2+
14%
IFK Skövde wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tord 1+ goals
77%
Tord 2+ goals
44%
Tord 3+ goals
19%
IFK Skövde 1+ goals
85%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
57%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Tord (draw refunded)
39%
IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tord at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

IFK Skövde away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tord attack 1.38 + IFK Skövde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

IFK Skövde attack 1.89 + Tord defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tord scores more
30%
level
22%
IFK Skövde scores more
48%

IFK Skövde at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Tord 0–4 IFK Skövde

IFK Skövde beat Tord 4-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 18, 2026.